by Rob Walters

As the U.N. advances towards a 50th anniversary in '95, its mandate needs to adapt to global restructuring. "The New World Order" has witnessed the reunification of Germany and the disintegration of the USSR, the repercussions of which, have led to catastrophes throughout the world. Yugoslavia has become a brutal war zone. Sarajevo, which had captivated the world with the XIV Winter Olympiad just eight years ago, is now the stage of an urban civil war. The turmoil dates back centuries to social-racial conflict. The amalgamation of nine separate entities (Croat, Muslim, Slovene, Albanian, Serb, Macedonian, Yugoslav, Montenegrin, and Hungarian) into one country has been a ticking time bomb.

The USSR's control managed a balance. After World War II, British and Soviet advisors agreed that Yugoslavia should be handed over to a Yugoslavian communist, Josip Broz or General Tito. Tito managed to uphold peace and Soviet domination until his death in 1980. In the 80's, the country suffered rough economic conditions which forced higher inflation and lower standards of living. This, along with Tito's annual ethnic rotation of president and chairman positions, created ethnic tensions.

Although Yugoslavia was not under the direct rule of the Kremlin, it did receive funding and armaments from the Soviet Union. But with the lack of finances to feed its own people and its imminent breakup, Yugoslavia was left to fend for itself.

By 1990, the Serb and Croatian factions were fighting for control and the right to succeed from the Federal Republic. Overnight, neighbours, living in harmony for decades, became enemies, resulting in major loss of life and property, with Serbs and Croats dominating individual areas. The conflict has escalated to more than a civil war. Innocent bystanders, children and relief workers have been attacked. The infrastructure is in ruins, and unemployed are forced to join the militia to support their families.

The U.N. is trying to intervene, but the situation is more complex than sitting factions down and agreeing to a cease-fire. The conflict has become a personal vendetta affecting everyone. Lord Carrington has secured the agreement of over twenty cease-free, only to have each broken. Failure is inevitable as the leader of the ethnic militias do not have effective control of their forces. Men in the field are on their own and believe nothing can stop them from driving out the opposite side, including their own people.

After the liberation of Kuwait, (supposed to have democratic elections this past summer), the U.N. was looked upon as a military parent to the "childish" nations of the world. A "smart bomb" here and some "collateral damage" there, would promote an end to all civil wars in the world. Unfortunately, as yet, the U.N. is neither prepared nor has the desire to commit to a strategic strike in Yugoslavia, and instead, has asked the true professionals of peacekeeping, the Canadian armed forces, to help solve the problem.

On Canada's 125th birthday, fellow Canadians were driving through live mine fields, exposing themselves to gunfire, to liberate Sarajevo International Airport. Under Maj.- Gen. Lewis MacKenzie, Canadian forces opened the airfield to international relief planes. George Bush stated: "We won't allow our Canadian friends to be harmed." Encouraging, but words, nonetheless.

MacKenzie faced numerous obstacles including mines, random gun battles, death-threats by fax (the 90's thing to do) and anti-aircraft fire. The world sat back and waited until the area was secured, then decided it was safe enough for their troops to go in. The French, Ukrainians and Moroccans were next to come. They have appreciated the severity of the conflict in Yugoslavia, with bullets now aimed at them.

One does not have to ask why militias would fire on peace-keepers and relief workers, when militia members fire on themselves to provoke ending a cease-fire. In this theatre-of-the-absurd, life is cheap: witness the brutal treatment of POW's, the ambush of school buses, the rape of girls and women.

The U.N. is experiencing an arduous period now. Yugoslavia, Somalia and Cambodia do not present simple answers.

"Blue Helmets" were primarily utilized for international disputes until the downfall of the Soviet empire. These missions became long-term postings, not really a permanent solution to the crisis. The UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) and the UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) were both established in 1948, the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) in 1964 and the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in 1974. These are simple band-aids placed over critical wounds which could fester at any time.

Will Yugoslavia be another Cyprus? The U.S. and western economic powers have no pressing need for Yugoslavia It has no large oil or gold deposits, and its infrastructure is in disrepair. The U.S. has been involved in a presidential election, and then, Bush had neither the time nor the popularity to gamble on a military initiative. The "ball" remains with the United Nations and the European Community.

These are possible scenarios that might evolve in coming months:

a) the United Nations could continue with its deployment of forces and watch the war escalate as supplies become scarce during the winter months, leading to more attacks on cargo planes, convoys and UN personnel.

b) The U. N. could ask the European Community to solve this problem on its own, since it's a Me line between an international and a domestic issue. This will lead nowhere and conflict will escalate.

c) Bill Clinton could try to get into the history books by precipitating some drastic action.

CONCLUSION: Nothing will happen. Military intervention is an impossible scenario at this point in time. For one, the United States will not commit to it until well after the election. Secondly, nations such as the United Kingdom, Belgium and Russia have to be careful not to set a precedent in advocating ethnic minorities being able to call upon the UN to liberate them. Ireland, the Flemish/French conflict and Muslims could create a great dilemma Finally, China will not stand for it, not only because of Bush's poorly-timed announcement of a sale of F-16's to Taiwan but more importantly, because it would compromise its own well-established stance on the issue of oppression in Tibet.

Things are less complicated yet more unpredictable without the balancing presence of the Soviet Union. And now it is becoming more evident that ethnic civil wars will be a regular occurrence for years to come. The UN has neither the power nor the finances to institute buffer zones all over the globe, and must promote the development of social and economic programs to alleviate the tensions between neighbouring parties.

In the interim, if anyone has the answer to the prevention of global ethnic conflicts, they can pick up their Nobel peace prize from the Norwegian committee.

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