The Malthusian Devil is Knocking

by Hans Tammemagi

A history teacher with a frayed sports jacket and chalk-covered hands introduced me to the Malthusian Devil in high school. Thomas Malthus, he explained, was a demographer that studied population growth in 1800 and predicted that human population was increasing so rapidly it would soon outstrip the resources of the Earth. The horror of famine and catastrophe would inevitably follow. As it turns out, he was both right and wrong.

Malthusian warnings of an enormous population explosion were right on the money. Today, humans are teeming on this globe. On Tuesday September 13, 1999, the six billionth person arrived on Earth -- an astonishing seven-fold increase in the two centuries since Malthus’ day. And the

beat goes on. For the next 15 years, global population growth is estimated to be over 80 million people per year -- another billion souls every 12.5 years. The UN calculates that by the year 2050 the population could be 11 billion people -- almost double what we have now! That is an enormous number of people, working, eating, jostling, purchasing, fornicating, competing with one another, and all seeking a better way of life.

But the calamity Malthus predicted never arrived. Remarkably, the production of food -- not to mention a cornucopia of other consumer goods -- has kept pace with population growth, and the standard of living for most people has improved significantly. We live better and longer than any of our ancestors. We have more choice, more ability to travel, more information, better medical support and education, more holidays, and more income.

So why was Malthus wrong? First, he did not count on the ability of new-world frontiers like North and South America to absorb people and provide resources. But far more crucial, Malthus vastly underestimated the power of human ingenuity. Science and technology have done wonders in providing increasing quantities of the necessities of life. Plant genetics, fertilizers, and pesticides have increased crop yields enormously; synthetic materials and weaving machines have led to mass-produced clothes; and Henry Ford’s production line has manufactured countless consumer goods. For two centuries the Malthusian Devil has been kept at bay, thanks primarily to our tool-making ability.

But there is an ominous chill in the air, for the Devil is finally casting his dark shadow across the land. He didn92t come in the front door, for the world is not suffering for lack of resources, as was predicted. Although some resources are becoming scarce, human ingenuity will continue to find ways of making do. Take oil, for example. In another few decades, oil reserves will be nearing exhaustion but will be replaced, likely by hydrogen fuel generated by nuclear or even fusion power. Presently unimaginable technologies will be discovered to provide food and other necessities in the future.

Instead, the Devil has snuck in the back door. He is quietly and surely contaminating our environment and destroying the natural ecosystems on which life is dependent. Through sheer weight of numbers, population is overwhelming the natural ecosystems of the Earth.

Everywhere we look there is pollution: in the air we breathe, the water we drink, in lakes and rivers, and in soils and groundwater. Pollution is damaging our health (1900 deaths a year in Ontario due to air pollution), degrading our quality of life, and damaging the resources we need for industry.

Consider the protective ozone layer in the upper atmosphere. No single big event is leading to its demise; instead it has been a molecule-by-molecule attack by billions of cans of spray, millions of air conditioners in cars and homes, each leaking just a little. Global warming, caused largely by burning massive quantities of fossil fuels, will cause dramatic weather changes that will flood low-lying coastal areas and could turn the prairie breadbasket into a dust bowl. Crowded cities and the latest ghastly chicken and pig factories are perfect incubators for powerful new diseases such as AIDS, E. Coli 1057, and the Ebola virus to name just a few.

The Earth’s oceans, once thought of as rolling on forever past the horizon, could absorb the impact of a few billion people, but six billion is too much. Cod have been depleted from Canada’s east coast, and salmon on the west coast are declining dangerously. And there is so much more: aquifers are being drained or contaminated, old growth and tropical forests are being razed, topsoil is becoming polluted or is blowing away, and an enormous pool of biodiversity is being wiped out.

The saddest result of our unfettered proliferation is the extinction of other species. In Asia and Africa poaching, illegal logging, and farms encroaching on preserves are decimating natural areas and their rich spectrum of life including such noble animals as elephants and tigers.

In North America the same song is sung, but to a different tune. Here we have the inexorable pressure of more and more strip malls, roads, and sprawling suburbs encroaching on farmers’ fields, the Niagara Escarpment, and the Oakridge Moraine. Natural habitats and the species they harbour are lonely islands in an ever-growing, stormy sea of humanity.

            Claiming the top rung in the animal kingdom, humans should be the custodian species protecting creatures small and large; instead, Homo sapiens would more accurately be described as the exterminator species. Instead of benignly ruling the natural kingdom, we ride roughshod over it.

            If our ingenuity has provided food, clothing and shelter for ever-increasing numbers with little difficulty, what is the problem with controlling the population and cleaning up the environment? Can we not apply the same ingenuity?

            No, it hasn’t worked that way. Humans have exceedingly strong survival instincts that inherently drive us to find new ways for providing life’s basic needs. But there is no similar motivation to clean up behind us. This is not a life basic, so we tend to ignore it; it’s a nuisance. Look at landfills. Although clothes, homes, and food would be unrecognizable by the people of Malthus’ day, landfills look roughly the same, just large piles of garbage thrown in a convenient place. They are much bigger piles now and a few technological twists have been added like bottom liners, but they still emit noxious gases into the atmosphere and toxic leachate into the groundwater. We send humans to the moon, but are not motivated to dispose of garbage properly.

            But the impact of humans is not just determined by sheer numbers. It also depends on the amount of resources each person consumes -- and in North America we are masters at voracious consumption. Our mad rush to own every form of throwaway, status-symbol gadget is raping the Earth. Consumer goods require metals and plastics, it takes factories to build them, energy to create and use them, roads on which to drive them, and landfills to discard their carcasses. All consumer goods leave a trail of pollution.

            Thus, population growth and its legacy of environmental degradation are truly an international problem. The third-world countries have the most explosive population growth and largest populations, but the developed countries have rampant consumption. Both need to be curbed. There are signs that population growth is getting under control in some European countries including Germany and Holland. But in India, China, and much of the third world, as well as in North America, population continues to increase.

            So where do we go now? The bottom line is that we must stop, and even reverse, population growth in both rich and poor countries. Easier said than done, for we individuals are more concerned with our own priorities than with those of society at large. Furthermore, population control is surrounded by thorny issues such as sanctity of human life, freedom of choice, and religious dogma.

            The most important step is to recognize we are facing a grave problem and to start treating it seriously. This needs both individual and government action. Our political leaders need to establish policies that curb population growth, both at home and internationally. Each of us needs to consider carefully the number of children we bring into this world.

            Reducing excessive consumerism is an equally important step -- we must live within our means. Reducing consumption does not mean a lower quality of life. In fact, it would enrich our lives in many ways, not the least being breathable air, drinkable water, and the pleasure of walking in a forest and seeing the graceful leap of a startled deer.

            Green spaces of all size and shape, from national and provincial parks to neighbourhood parks to gardens to window boxes are desperately needed. Plants generate oxygen from carbon dioxide and also purify air and water. They provide refuge for plants, animals, and insects -- a wonderful spectrum of life. We must preserve natural places.

            The concept of sustainable development (development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs) must be adopted as a cornerstone of government policies. This means many things including pollution prevention, intelligent urban planning (smart cities), mass transport, and recycling. It is vital that the definition of sustainable development be expanded to include population control.

            Put simply, the number of humans has increased beyond what the Earth can carry. If humans were deer or Harp seal, we would have been culled long ago. Let’s apply our ingenuity before the Malthusian Devil does it for us.